Expected Games methodology

What the estimate means

Expected Games expresses a reasonable season-level expectation for a player’s appearances based on the evidence available today.

It helps distinguish players expected to carry a regular role from those whose opportunities or availability may be more limited.

What we consider

• Relevant NFL availability history.
• Recent information, with greater emphasis on what is most current.
• The player’s expected role and position context.
• A different evidence approach for rookies and players without a reliable NFL sample.

Important distinction

A lower Expected Games estimate can reflect a limited projected role, not only health or durability concerns. The number should never be read as a diagnosis.